Our Predictions, Dated & Scored

Innovation Vista Predictions

Dated, Sourced, Scored

Every prediction Innovation Vista has published, with the date it was made, the date it resolves, the source that decides it, and its current status. The thesis from which these these predictions flow is summarized on its own page. Entries are never deleted. Misses count the same as hits.

How the ledger works

Every entry below is dated and linked to its first publication. Entries made before this page existed are dated to the post that first made them, with an archived copy of that post as the receipt. Each entry states the claim, the date it resolves, the source that decides it, and a confidence level: High, Moderate, or Contrarian, the last meaning that fewer than half of the experts we could find would have agreed with us at the time. Where a consensus existed when we wrote, we snapshot it and link the snapshot. Entries are never deleted or reworded after posting; a correction is a new entry that cites the old one. Conditional entries are labeled as conditional and are void, not scored, if their condition fails. A miss on a Contrarian call is calibration. A miss on a High-confidence call is a lesson, and we will write it up as one.

Prediction 1 · The Great Repricing shrinks the Labor market

The claim: “US white-collar and professional-services payrolls will remain below their pre-contraction peak through the end of 2027, and the college wage premium will narrow further.”

Predicted March 2026 in “The Great Repricing“. Resolves December 31, 2027; decided by the final BLS payroll series for 2027 and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s college wage-premium series. Confidence: High. Status: Open

Prediction 2 · The Great Repricing drives national policy.

The claim: “By the end of 2028, a major federal income-support expansion explicitly responding to AI displacement will be enacted, or formally adopted as a platform position by the leadership of a major party.”

Predicted March 2026 in “The Great Repricing“. Resolves December 31, 2028; decided by the legislative record and published party platforms. Confidence: High. Status: Open.

Prediction 3 · The Great Repricing drives inflation, if it comes

The claim: “If prediction #4 proves true, its financing will be inflationary, despite the deflationary pressure AI exerts generally: the federal deficit stays above 2.5% of GDP and CPI reaccelerates above 4% percent within eighteen months of enactment.”

Predicted March 2026 in “The Great Repricing“, in the lineage of Lyn Alden’s work on debasement, credited there. Conditional on prediction  #4; if #4 misses, this entry is void. Resolves eighteen months after any qualifying enactment; decided by Congressional Budget Office deficit figures and the BLS Consumer Price Index. Confidence: Moderate, conditional. Status: Open.

Prediction 4 · Deflation follows, once a safety net exists

The claim: “The deflationary signal appears in the same series during 2028, as redesigned contracts catch up with delivery costs.” [JEFF: confirm this wording against the live Great Repricing post and the Where the Dividend Goes chapter; if the book states a different window, the ledger follows the book.]

Predicted March 2026 in “The Great Repricing“. Resolves with the December 2028 PPI release; decided by the same series as Entry 7. Confidence: Moderate. Status: Open.

Prediction 5 · Pricing units switch from per-seat and T&M

The claim: “By the end of 2027, at least three major software or IT-services providers will have publicly moved offerings from time-and-materials or per-seat pricing to fixed-bid or outcome pricing anchored at or above pre-AI price levels, while disclosing material AI-driven reductions in their own delivery cost.”

Predicted in May 2026 in “Vendor Partnerships in the Era of AI Arbitrage“. Resolves December 31, 2027; decided by earnings calls, published price lists, and trade press. Confidence: High. Status: Open.

Prediction 9. Digital workers get a price tag

The claim: “By the end of 2027, at least five of the twenty largest enterprise software vendors will sell per-agent or outcome-priced digital-worker offerings as standard products, and supervisory capacity will surface as the reported bottleneck in major CIO surveys.”

Made [VERIFY: late June 2026] in Last Year Your Competitors Subscribed to AI Tools · Now They’re Hiring Them [LINK]. Resolves December 31, 2027; decided by published price lists and the named CIO survey instruments. [JEFF: name the surveys.] Confidence: High on the first clause, Moderate on the second. Status: Open.

Prediction 10. The old consulting model shrinks

The claim: “By the end of 2028, at least two of the Big Four will report advisory-arm revenue declines in consecutive fiscal years, or aggregate advisory headcount more than ten percent below peak, while expert-direct and fractional models gain share.”

Made [VERIFY: late March 2026] in Why the Old Big 4 Consulting Model is Dying [LINK]. Resolves with the firms’ fiscal 2028 global revenue reports; decided by those reports. Confidence: Moderate. Supporting evidence log: the absorption of fractional-CIO firms into search and staffing platforms, which we track. Status: Open.

Prediction 11. Waiting does not pay this time

The claim: “Companies in the top quartile of the 2026 Innovation Vista AI Maturity Index will outperform bottom-quartile peers on [JEFF: revenue growth or margin; pick one] by the 2028 edition, and the gap will widen rather than close. The internet-era fast-follower discount will not reappear.”

Made across three posts [VERIFY DATES]: 1st or 2nd Mover? Yes. [LINK], Patience-Flavored AI Paralysis [LINK], and The Last Tech Wave Rewarded Waiting [LINK]. Resolves with the 2028 Index; decided by our own instrument, which is credible only if the ruler cannot move. The 2026 methodology will be published and frozen before this entry goes live. [JEFF: prerequisite; do not post this entry until the methodology page is up and archived.] Confidence: Moderate. Consensus then: [SNAPSHOT: the first-mover-disadvantage literature and the modest-impact camp]. Status: Pending prerequisite.

Prediction 12. Laggards are sold for cheap

The claim: “Within ten years of publication, AI-laggard companies in at least three mid-market sectors will trade at distress: median acquisition multiples for bottom-quartile AI-maturity firms below 20% percent of the sector-median revenue multiple.”

Made June 2026 in Within a Decade You’ll Be Able to Buy Competitors for Pennies. Resolves ten years after that date; decided by PitchBook or Capital IQ transaction data, with the AI-maturity quartile defined by the Index. Confidence: Moderate. Status: Open.

Prediction 10 · Agent docks become a standard commercial surface

The claim: “By mid-2029, an agent-facing, transactable interface will be as expected of a mid-market B2B seller as a website was by 2005. By the end of 2027, at least two major ERP or B2B marketplace ecosystems will formally support autonomous counterparty agents completing discovery-to-order without a human starting the session.”

Made August 2026 in “Your Next Customer Won’t Be Human · MCP and the Rise of Agent Docks“. Resolves December 31, 2027 for the ecosystem clause and June 30, 2029 for the expectation clause; decided by vendor documentation and public announcements. Confidence: High. Status: Open.

Prediction 11 · Buyers get agents before most sellers build docks

The claim: “Through at least the end of 2027, deployed buyer-side procurement agents will outnumber seller-side agent interfaces in the mid-market by an order of magnitude.”

Made August 2026 in “Your Next Customer Won’t Be Human · MCP and the Rise of Agent Docks“. Resolves December 31, 2027; decided by published procurement-AI adoption data set against a dock census, which we may have to run ourselves and will publish if we do. Confidence: High. Status: Open.

Candidate entries, not yet posted

The AI Dividend Map is refreshed every year, which makes it a natural source of dated claims: which sectors will cross the third gate and move from Slow Melt or Rollup into Rising Bar or Falling Floor by the 2028 edition, and which will not. [JEFF: decide whether the 2027 map carries its first ledger entry, and which sectors you would put your name on.] Nothing enters the ledger until it has been published as a claim somewhere else first.

The scorecard

So far none of these has been proven or falsified; the first entries will resolve at the end of 2027. A ledger with nothing resolved is a promise, and we know it; the near-term entries were chosen so the scoreboard fills in within eighteen months, not ten years.

We’ve laid out our overarching thesis that these predictions test, and of course other articles & pages provide deeper context on specific aspects of the AI revolution through which we are guiding mid-market organizations.

Thought Leadership from our team

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